China to have 700 KT aluminium surplus in 2011 -Antaike

* 2011 consumption seen up 11.9 pct at 18.8 mln T

* 2011 production seen up 11.4 pct at 19.5 mln T

* Antaike raises 2010 consumption, output estimates

ZHENGZHOU, China, Oct 27 - China will have a domestic surplus of 700,000 tonnes of primary aluminium next year, flat from this year, a senior analyst at state-backed research group Antaike said on Wednesday.

The world's top aluminium consumer and producer, China may show a real annual consumption rise of 11.9 percent to 18.8 million tonnes next year, which would be supported by healthy domestic economic growth, Li Yang told an industry conference in Zhengzhou city in China's top aluminium producing province of Henan.

The growth is lower than a rise of 21.7 percent that is expected this year.

Demand is likely to increase by 3 million tonnes to 16.8 million tonnes this year, thanks to high exports of semi-finished products and start-ups of new capacity for which liquid aluminium is used on the bottom of production pots before the first production. The estimate is against the previous 15.9 million tonnes. [ID: nTOE69P04N]

Official data showed China's exports of semi-finished products rose 68 percent to 1.6 million tonnes in the first nine months of the year.

Production growth is likely to offset the consumption rise in 2011, keeping a surplus in the domestic market.

Production may rise by 2 million tonnes, or 11.4 percent year on year, to 19.5 million tonnes next year, Li predicted.

In 2010, production would rise 28.4 percent, or by 3.87 million tonnes to 17.5 million tonnes, from a previous forecast of 17 million tonnes, despite production cuts at smelters in Chinese regions such as Henan, Guizhou and Guangxi, due to power supply cuts.

"We believe 17.5 million tonnes of capacity was operating at the end of September," Li said.

Li's estimate is 1.5 million tonnes higher than the 1.6 million tonnes expected by a director at the Ministry of Industry.

Zhang Fenghui, a director at the ministry, told reporters on the sidelines of the same conference on Tuesday that power supply cuts in Chinese provinces, put in place to help Beijing meet an energy intensity target by the end of the year, would reduce aluminium production in the current quarter

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