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China power output to rebound in H2
- China Aluminium Network
- Post Time: 2009/7/17
- Click Amount: 569
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China experienced its first YoY increase in power output in June since last October and although industry experts believe that power output will continue to grow in the H2 of the year, some remain skeptical it will herald an economic recovery.
According to the latest statistics from the National Electric Power Dispatching and Communication Center, China's power output last month grew by 3.59%YoY to 309.33 million megawatt hours.
Mr Yu Hai a power industry analyst with Shenyin & Wanguo Securities said the increase in power output was due in part to a rebound in secondary industry product output especially that of steel products that started in May.
According to a research note published on July 3rd by Mr Chen Junhua an analyst with China International Capital Corp Ltd, in addition, fixed asset investment growth during the H1 should lead to an increase in demand for industrial products and in turn push up power consumption in the H2. He said that the YoY growth rate of the country's fixed asset investment climbed every month from January to May reaching 33% in May.
Mr Chen estimated that aggregate power consumption in 2009 will grow by more than 4% on an annual basis. While some experts are confident that rising power consumption signals that China's economy will recover in the second half, others are cautious as regional and seasonal factors have had a significant impact on the increase in power output in June.
Mr Wang Shuang a power industry analyst with United Securities said in a research note on July 8th "The large increase in June's power output in China's central and eastern regions are most likely attributed to the weather."
Mr Wang believes that only the increased power output in the southern regions points to a regional economic recovery as the weather has less of an impact on the rate of power consumption.
Ms Xue Jing director of the statistics department of the China Electricity Council said at an industry forum on July 8th the YoY increase in power output in June can also be explained in part by seasonal factors. She said that in addition, power output in the coastal regions of Shanghai, Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Guangdong in June 2008 began to shrink well ahead of the rest of the country which contributed to seemingly high YoY growth in power output in June 2009.
Nonetheless, she predicted that power output will continue to grow in the second half of the year. Since the beginning of the year, the CEC has revised its projection for domestic power output growth for the year from 5% to between 2.5% and 3.5%. China's power output would have to grow by 9%YoY in the H2 to meet that projection, which Ms Xue believes will not be difficult considering how much output declined in the H2 of 2008. Source: Interfax-China
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