China's Copper Demand Stays Up

China's copper imports fall off the cliff after April in most years, but 2009 could prove different, with sustained Chinese imports keeping prices firm.

Continued healthy demand would be bullish for the global market, given China is currently the only buyer of size.

 A seasonal drop in Chinese imports amid a global slowdown could have had a more pronounced impact on prices than in previous years.

In four of the past five years, Chinese copper imports fell sharply in May. The drops were as much as 26% to 59%, compared with April. Only in 2005 did imports rise, increasing 12.8% from April.

China tends to buy most of its raw materials during the first few months of the calendar year, ahead of the more active summer trade.

But there are several factors at work this year that could mitigate seasonal weakness and produce another off-trend year.

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