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Cable Network Monthly Review: Review of Aluminum Price Trend in October and Short-Term Forecast
- China Aluminium Network
- Post Time: 2022/11/1
- Click Amount: 815
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【Aluminum Road Network】
According to the monitoring data of cable network (www.cableabc.com), since October 2022, the aluminum price has continued to fluctuate. Although there is a mild upward momentum during the period, there is still pressure on the medium-term macroeconomic situation. It is still difficult to escape the range shock. Represented by Changjiang spot A00 aluminum ingots, the average price at the beginning of the month (October 10) was 18,600 yuan/ton. As of October 28, the average price of Changjiang spot A00 aluminum ingots was 18,300 yuan/ton, and the price fell by 300 yuan/ton. The drop was about 1.6%.
Market analysis:
Poor macro environment
The IMF recently lowered its forecast for global economic growth and emphasized that the global economic outlook continues to face huge downside risks. Despite the slowdown in economic growth, inflationary pressures are broader and more persistent than expected. The higher-than-expected US non-farm payrolls data and the hawkish speech of the Fed officials strengthened expectations of interest rate hikes, and the dollar continued to rise, putting pressure on the commodity market.
In addition, overseas economic data was mixed. The newly released data showed that the manufacturing PMIs of Europe, the United States and the United Kingdom were all weaker than expected in October, which intensified the market's worries about a global economic recession, pessimism fermented, and non-ferrous metals continued to be under pressure. Meanwhile, better-than-expected U.S. real GDP in the third quarter ended a two-quarter decline in a row, boosting a stronger dollar and further weighing on metals prices.
The domestic supply side is slowly recovering
Recently, the domestic supply side has recovered slightly. Sichuan and Inner Mongolia Source:
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