Alcoa predicts higher Aluminium demand amid surplus

Alcoa, the American primary aluminium smelter, forecasts growing demand for aluminium in 2020 after a downtick in 2019 that accorded to its $1.1 billion loss for the year.

The global aluminium demand is projected to grow between1.4-2.4%, improving from a 0.2-0.4% decline in 2019 by Alcoa. The company anticipates more equitable supply-demand dynamics for alumina and bauxite raw materials in 2020, even as its view that primary aluminium will oscillate to a surplus.

The global market balance for aluminium is predicted between a 0.6-1million tonne surplus in 2020, driving back a 0.9-1.1 million tonnes deficit in 2019.

Shipments of bauxite are expected to rise as much as 3% in 2020 to between 48-49 million dry metric tonnes from a year earlier, while alumina volumes edge up as much as 1% to 13.6-13.7million tonnes.

The company is expecting weaker results in the first quarter directed by lower prices and seasonally lower volumes.

Alcoa kicked off a review of existing assets to "drive lower costs and sustainable profitability," as an outcome of it is the sale of its waste treatment facility in Gum Springs, Arkansas on 2nd Jan’20.

The primary and the flat-rolled aluminium shipments declined by 12% which accounted for 718,000 tonnes in the last quarter from the same year-earlier period. The complete year shipments totalled 2.9 million tonnes, which is down by 13% from 2018.

In the 4th quarter, the average realized aluminium prices dropped by 13% from the previous year to $ 2,042/tonne and the complete year average prices have downfallen all round 2019, declining by 14% to $2,141/tonne from 2018.

Again in the 4th quarter, the primary aluminium production has shown de-growth of 7% from a year earlier to 535,000 tonnes. The entire year production fell by 5% YoY to 2.1 million tonnes.

Quarterly third-party bauxite shipments fell by 6% to 1.5 million dry metric tonnes, while alumina volumes rose by 4%to 2.5 tonnes.

Annual bauxite shipments increased to 6.2million dry metric tonnes from 5.7million dry metric tonnes. Shipments of alumina rose by 2% to 9.5 million tonnes in 2019.

Round the year bauxite production totalled to 47.4 dry metric tonnes, a 3% increase from 2018. Alumina production raised by 3% to13.3 million tonnes in 2019.

Revenues declined by 27% to $2.4billion in the last quarter from a year earlier, while the company reversed a $51million profit, losing $303million. Alcoa lost $1.1billion compared in 2019 to a $250million profit in 2018.

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