China aluminum circle indicates that in the second half of 2007 the ¡°Bear market¡± will happen in the aluminum market.

On May 14, in an industrial forum held in Hangzhou Zhejiang province, east of China, the majority of participants agreed that in the second half of 2007 the aluminum price would tend to decline.

In a forum hosted by CBI, the base of which is located in Shanghai, 45% of voters thought that the aluminum price would maintain stable, 38% expected the price might fall, and only 17% predicted that the price would rise.

     There is a fact behind the pessimistic attitude: under the leadership of China, the global electrolytic production and yield have a rapid growth that results in oversupply in the medium-term and long-term.

The analysts pointed out that in the short period of time, the aluminum price would be stable, since the demand and supply of aluminum in China was in balanced posture. They said, ¡° But from May on, newly constructed production ad some idle production capacity have been put into operation since the next half of 2006, the balance would be broken.

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