China and world alumina market in the first two weeks of September

The month of September marks the end of third quarter of the financial year for a number of companies. The month indicates how the market and industry is going to turn out in the next quarter. Let’s browse through how the alumina industry and the market fared in the first two weeks of September.

Shanghai Metals Market reported that the alumina output in China stood at 5.82 million tonnes in August, with metallurgical-grade alumina accounting for 5.57 million tonnes. Daily average production of metallurgical-grade alumina dropped 2.2 per cent month-on-month to 180,000 tonnes in August. Lower output at at a number of refineries led to this drop. Because of sluggish alumina prices and bauxite supply tightness, these alumina producers had to cut their productions.

In September, the total production is expected to reach 5.8 million tonnes, including 5.56 million tonnes of metallurgical-grade alumina.

According to Shanghai Metals Market, the average spot price of alumina in China has extended its rise in September, which started during mid-August. The price currently stands at RMB 2,547 or US$359.5 per tonne. The price started the month of September at RMB 2528 or US$356.6 per tonne and is on an upward curve since then. Prices are likely to stay high during rest of September on a seasonal tight supply and demand from aluminium smelters which are actively restocking on higher SHFE prices of aluminium.

In the international scenario, imported alumina price remains flat at RMB 2700 US$359.5 per tonne since August. Australian alumina FOB price currently stands at RMB 2075 or US$293 per tonne and the price is on a steady downward curve since end of August when it stood at RMB 2110 or US$298 per tonne.  International prices are on a downward curve due to abundant supply. The surplus was primarily driven by slow growth in aluminium production and higher alumina production due to the resumption of Alunorte, the start-up of Al Taweelah in the UAE and the ramp-up of Fria in Guinea.

Michael Peter Ferraro, Alumina Limited - MD, CEO & Executive Director forecasts a modest surplus of alumina during the remaining months of 2019. He also forecasts on the Chinese alumina supply/demand balance over the next few years.

On September 3, the Ministry of Transport and Mining in Jamica confirmed that they will suspend operation at the Jisco-Alpart refinery in St. Elizabeth to start second phase of modernisation and expansion programme, which would start within the next 30 to 60 days. The closure will affect jobs of the current employees.

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