Goldman Cuts Base Metal Forecasts on China Demand

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. lowered its price forecasts for copper, aluminum and other base metals on slower global economic growth and ``substantial deterioration'' in Chinese demand.

Copper will trade at $3,500 a metric ton in three months time, down 56 percent from a previous estimate, the bank's analysts led by Allison Nathan and Jeffrey Currie said in a report dated today. The metal will be $4,000 a ton in six months and $6,625 in 12 months, down 52 percent and 26 percent respectively from the bank's previous forecasts.

Analysts are cutting price forecasts on commodities as the worst credit crisis since the Great Depression threatens to tip the global economy into recession. Industrial output in China, the world's biggest copper consumer, grew by the least in six years in August, when house prices in the nation's 70 major cities also posted the smallest annual gain in 18 months.

``Base metals and copper demand is closely tied to the Chinese real estate sector,'' the analysts wrote. ``Substantial slowing'' in Chinese metal-intensive sectors will have an ``increasingly negative impact'' on the nation's base metal demand over the next three to six months.

Commodities Tumble

Commodities, as measured by the Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index of 19 commodities, have slumped 39 percent from their July 3 peak. Copper has fallen 45 percent the same time to $4,790 a ton on the London Metal Exchange. Aluminum fell 30 percent to $2,305 in the same period.

Aluminum will trade at $2,060 a ton in three months time, Nathan and Currie wrote, 30 percent less than Goldman previously predicted. The metal will be $2,000 in six months, down 35 percent, and $2,600 in 12 months, down 20 percent.

Nickel forecasts were reduced by 41 percent to $11,285 a ton for three months, cut 42 percent to $11,000 for six months, and down 24 percent to $14,375 for 12 months.

Goldman cut its three-month lead estimates by 27 percent to $1,360 a ton, six-month forecast by 29 percent to $1,300, and 12-month target by 14 percent to $1,525.

Three, six and 12-month zinc calls were lowered 26 percent to $1,335, 29 percent to $1,300 and 15 percent to $1,640, respectively.

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