LME aluminium saw two consecutive gains; SHFE likely to trade robust on cost support

The US dollar retreated after a gain and ended flat on the day on disappointing data on the US retail sales for April. Base metals rose across the board and LME aluminium rose 0.68%. SHFE aluminium increased 0.38%.

LME aluminium price saw two consecutive increases in last two days and crossed the US$1800 per tonne benchmark after continuous low run. The three months aluminium contract is expected to trade within a range of US$1,840-1,860 per tonne today.

As on May 15, LME aluminium cash (bid) price stood at US$ 1801.50 per tonne, LME official settlement price stands at US$ 1802 per tonne; 3-months bid price stands at US$ 1830 per tonne, 3-months offer price is US$ 1832 per tonne; Dec 20 bid price stands at US$ 1943 per tonne, and Dec 20 offer price stands at US$ 1948 per tonne.

The LME aluminium opening stock dropped to 1250250 tonnes. Live Warrants totalled at 835725 tonnes, and Cancelled Warrants were 414525 tonnes.

LME aluminium 3-months Asian Reference Price is hovering at US$ 1841per tonne.

SME and SHFE Aluminium Price Trend

The benchmark aluminium price on Shanghai Metal Exchange has increased substantially to US$ 2088 per tonne today from US$ 2085.5 per tonne on Wednesday May 15.

The most active SHFE July contract continued its overnight growth during the day, and ended the trading day 1.13% higher at RMB14,340 per tonne. The loading up of long positions accounted for today’s gains. Rising prices of alumina accounted for the recent robust performance in SHFE aluminium. Upside room in prices of alumina, due to environmental cutbacks in Shanxi province, is likely to support aluminium prices in the short term. We expect the most-liquid SHFE July contract to trade robustly at RMB14,300-14,400 per tonne today with spot premiums standing at RMB 20 per tonne today.

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