Chinese alumina production increases 3% YoY to stand at 5.95 million tonnes in September: SMM shows

According to the latest update from Shanghai Metals Market, China’s alumina production in September grew 3 per cent year-on-year to stand at 5.95 million tonnes; while the total output during January-September came in at about 52.11 million tonnes, up 1.9 per cent from the same period last year.

Daily output averaged at 198,000 tonnes in the same month, up 3.8 per cent from August, as higher profits encouraged southwestern refineries to raise production. Refineries in Shanxi and Henan provinces, at the same time, resumed operation from cutbacks or maintenance which as a whole boosted the overall production.

SMM expects daily output to extend further growth in China by 2 per cent than the previous month, as production has resumed at State Power Investment Corp Shanxi Aluminium and new capacity has commissioned at Shanxi Xiaoyi Alumina Refinery and Eastern Hope Jinzhong Aluminium. The total October’s output is expected to come in at around 6.27 million tonnes with daily output averaging 202,000 tonnes.

In this background, the alumina spot price in September was found range-bound between RMB 3301 per tonne and RMB 3284 per tonne, and fell further in October since when opened after a week-long National Day holiday. Today, as of October 12, the alumina spot price is standing at RMB 3072 per tonne.

The primary aluminium production, on the other hand, stood at 3 million tonnes in September, up 2.9 per cent year-on-year but still could not boost the overall output during January-September. It stood 1.3 per cent down from the corresponding period last year, at 27.05 million tonnes, SMM data found.

There are about 37.38 million tonnes of primary aluminium capacity in operation across the country as of the end of September and about 4.66 million tonnes of idle capacity. Operating rates last month came in at 88.9 per cent down, down 0.3 percentage point from August as higher costs grew losses.

The reason behind the drop in operating volumes could be the permanent shutdown of some capacities in Shanxi and Henan due to increasing operating costs. Commissioning of new capacities stayed at a slow pace in contrast, which is expected to linger now until the next month.

SMM estimates October's output to come in at 3.1 million mt, up 3% from the same period last year. However, the annual change for the January-October period will remain to be in a contraction, of 0.9%.