LME aluminium closed the week lower on Friday; expected to trade higher today on dipping greenback

The US dollar index dipped and closed at 94.52 last Friday. LME aluminium rebounded to a high of US$2,188.5 per tonne last Friday night after closing the day’s trading at US$ 2166 per tonne as the US dollar dipped.  It closed at highs at US$2,176.5 per tonne during night trading with open interests declining 188 lots to 670,000 lots. Shanghai Metals Market sees it trading rangebound around the five-day moving average at US$2,170-2,190 per tonne today.

As on June 22, LME aluminium cash (bid) price stands at US$ 2165.50 per tonne, LME official settlement price stands at US$ 2166 per tonne; 3-months bid price stands at US$ 2171 per tonne, 3-months offer price is US$ 2172 per tonne; Dec 19 bid price stands at US$ 2193 per tonne, and Dec 19 offer price stands at US$ 2198 per tonne.

The LME aluminium opening stock slightly dropped to 1128325 tonnes. Live Warrants totalled at 890075 tonnes, and Cancelled Warrants were 238250 tonne.

LME aluminium 3-months Asian Reference Price is hovering at US$ 2179.16 per tonne.  

SME and SHFE Aluminium Price Trend

The benchmark aluminium price on Shanghai Metal Exchange dropped to US$ 2165 per tonne on June 25 from US$ 2173 per tonne on June 22. 

As shorts decreased, the SHFE 1808 contract halted its downward trend but lacked upward momentum on Friday. It rebounded after it fell to a low of RMB 14,145 per tonne before noon, and closed at RMB 14,210 per tonne, up from the previous day. After slumping to a low of RMB 14,160 per tonne, the SHFE 1808 contract climbed up to close at RMB 14,220 per tonne today morning as its LME counterpart strengthened.

The contract will trade with pressure as domestic inventory is expected to decline less over the weekend on lower consumption. Its trade range is seen at RMB 14,100-14,300 per tonne today with spot discounts at RMB 60-20 per tonne. SMM expects pressure from fundamentals to remain in the medium term as prices of alumina and prebaked anode decline.

LME metals saw mixed trading while SHFE metals rose across the board last Friday. Key factors to watch today include German IFO business climate index for June and the US new home sales for May.

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