China¡¯s alumina output on a new high in October; spot prices on a downward curve

Spot Alumina prices are on a downward curve after staying flat since the last week of October, following downtrend in aluminium.

As updated by Shanghai Metals Market, average spot alumina price in China has dropped from RMB 3719/t on November 10 to RMB 3701/per tonne on November 13. SMM expects the spot prices to test support at RMB 3701 per tonne today. Domestic spot alumina prices have also dropped to RMB 3655/t from RMB 3670/t.  Domestic prices are expected range within RMB 3550 – 3760 per tonne today.

Alumina price from large scale alumina enterprises remains unchanged since October last and stands at RMB 3770/t today and expected to range within RMB 3,690- 3,850/t today. In the imported alumina market also, average price stands unchanged at RMB 3750/tonne.

Today’s spot alumina prices in the individual domestic markets are shown in the table below:

The drop in alumina price in China is also driven by the expected aluminium capacity cut in winter and also the recently reported increased alumina output in October. The alumina output in October stands at 6.02 million tonnes, rising 14.5% YoY. Daily average output is 194,000 tonnes, rising 0.9% on month on month basis. YTD alumina output IN China through October has reached 57.163 million tonnes, up 19.1% in comparison to the same period of 2016.

SHFE Aluminium inventories slightly rise this week, reaching 666,581 tonnes historic record. The growing inventory is putting pressure on aluminium price. Alumina prices are expected to rise once the actual winter capacity cut starts from November 15.

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