LME aluminium drops further; may break support at USD 2,125 per tonne

Aluminum prices are falling back again after a rise on October 9. According to SMM analysis, the fall was driven by the rumour that one aluminium smelter in Shandong was exempted from winter capacity cut during November-December. SMM expects LME aluminium to move within a lower range of USD 2,120-2,150/mt today.

According to a Reuters’ analysis LME aluminium may break a support at USD 2,125 per tonne and fall to the next support at $2,103, as suggested by Fibonacci projections. A small double-top forming around $2,174 has also been confirmed by the analysts.

As on October 11, LME official cash buyer aluminium price (Bid Price) stands at US$2,123 per tonne, cash seller & settlement aluminium price (Offer price) is US$2,124 per tonne, 3M Bid Price is US$2,146.50 per tonne, 3M Offer Price is US$2,147 per tonne, Dec1 Bid Price is US$2,195 per tonne, and Dec1 Offer Price is US$2,200 per tonne. LME aluminium Opening Stock or the LME aluminium inventory level stands at 1234025 tonnes, total Live Warrants is 974225 tonnes, and Cancelled Warrant is 259800 tonnes.      

SME and SHFE aluminium price trend

The benchmark aluminium price at Shanghai Metal Exchange (SME) has dropped from US$ 2452 per tonne on Wednesday, October 11, to US$ 2439 per tonne on Thursday, October 12.

All base metals diverged further on SHFE with copper and nickel comparatively stronger. SHFE 1712 aluminium will range within RMB 16,200-16,450/mt. SMM EXPECTS price divergence to be continuing in the near term. In east China’s spot aluminium market, spot discounts are expected to narrow down to RMB 120-80/mt over SHFE 1710 aluminium contract on Thursday, October 12.

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