Antaike forecasts 6.65 million tpy new alumina capacity in China in 2017

According to the aluminium sector report from Antaike, state-run metals consultancy firm in Beijing, published on Thursday, China is expected to add 6.65 million tonnes per year of new alumina capacity in 2017, mostly in North China, Central China and Northwest China.

Antaike forecasts 6.65 million tpy new alumina capacity in China in 2017

Currently, China has 79.25 million tonnes of annual alumina capacity as reported in the end of 2016 and the extra capacity would be in excess of that.

2 million tonnes per year new alumina capacity would be added in Shandong Province in North China and Henan Province in Central China would add 1 million tonne per year new capacity in 2017, the Antaike report says.

The report figures also say Shanxi Province and Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, both in Northwest China, would add new alumina capacity of 2.6 million tpy and 500,000 tpy, respectively, in 2017.

According to Antaike, China is also forecasted to add an extra 5.7 million tpy new alumina output capacity in 2018, mostly in in Southwest China:

The agency has forecast China’s national alumina demand to hit 75.16 million tonnes in 2018, up 5.5% year from the estimated 71.24 million tonnes in 2017. The growing alumina demand forecast is due to the rising primary aluminium capacity in China which hit 32.65 million tonnes in 2016, up 6% YOY.

China’s national alumina production in 2018 is expected to be 72.5 million tonnes, up 6.9% from an estimated 67.8 million tonnes in 2017. The agency has forecast China’s alumina supply in 2018 to be 76.5 million tonnes, up 7% from estimated 71.4 million tonnes in 2017.

Antaike has forecast China’s net alumina imports in 2018 to hit 4 million mt, up 11% from an estimated 3.6 million mt imports in 2017. The alumina market will be at a surplus of 1.34 million tonnes in 2018, increasing from an estimated 160,000 tonnes for 2017.

The average alumina production cost was Yuan 2,060/mt ($299/per tonne) in 2016, up 8.9% YOY due to rising raw material cost, the agency report says.

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