LME, SHFE aluminium to fluctuate at lows; SMM aluminium production data shows 3.8% YoY rise

LME aluminium is in a fluctuating mode. After having risen for four consecutive days, the contract has fallen marginally by 0.29% to close at US$1,717 per tonne after Monday's night trading. According to Shanghai Metals Market's analysis it will move at lows during Asian trading hours on Tuesday, January 10, with Shanghai aluminium but will edge higher during European trading hours. LME aluminium is expected to move at US$1,710-1,730 per tonne on Tuesday.

As on January 9, LME official cash buyer price of aluminium stands at US$1,716.5 per tonne, cash seller & settlement price is US$1,717 per tonne, 3M buyer price is US$1,705.5 per tonne, 3M seller price is US$1,706, Dec1 buyer price is US$1,755 per tonne, and Dec1 seller price is US$1,760 per tonne. The current LME official Opening Stock of aluminium is estimated at 2217025 tonnes, total Live Warrants is 1556000 tonnes, and Cancelled Warrant is 659925 tonnes.

As on January 6, LME Aluminium US Premium stands at US$180, LME Aluminium West-Europe Premium is US$75, LME Aluminium East-Asia Premium is US$85 and LME Aluminium South-East Asia Premium is US$15.

In China, the benchmark price of aluminium on Shanghai Metal Exchange stands at US$1,810 per tonne, down 0.82 per cent from previous day's price of US$1,825 per tonne.

Aluminium traded on Shanghai Futures Exchange is predicted to fluctuate at the 5-day moving average on Tuesday. SMM says the contract SHFE 1703 aluminium will range between RMB 12,500-12,700 per tonne.

“Eyes should be on speeches by hawkish Federal Reserve’s officials, and this will change sentiment in the dollar market, and base metals will diverge sharply,” SMM says.

Spot aluminium in China’s domestic market is estimated to trade at discounts of RMB 30 per tonne to premiums of RMB 10 per tonne on Tuesday.

As per preliminary data released by SMM, China's December aluminium production increased 18.6 per cent year-over-year to total at 2950 thousand tonnes. January-December production volume of the metal stood at 31750 thousand tonnes, up 3.83 per cent from the corresponding period previous year. The estimated production in January totals 2967 thousand tonnes, up 0.57 per cent from the previous month.

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