China's exports of aluminium bar rods and profiles estimated to shrink in 2016

According to the preliminary data released by the General Administration of Customs, China's exports of unwrought aluminium and aluminium semis were 380,000 mt in November, with YTD exports from January to November at 4200,000 mt, down 3.1 per cent year-over-year. If we look at the year-over-year trend of aluminium semis exports, we can see a rise in shipment volume in 2015 from 2014. In 2016, however, the trend has reversed and an overall decline in the figure is estimated. The earnings from aluminium bar rods, and profiles export have also shown a similar trend- rising YoY in 2015 and declining again in 2016 being faced by international trade violation challenges.

China's exports of aluminium bar rods and profiles estimated to shrink in 2016

In 2014, China exported a total volume of 0.86 million mt aluminium bar rods, and profiles, which soared 33.33 per cent to reach 1.14 million mt in 2015. In 2016, total aluminium bar rods and profile exports shrunk. It is estimated to total at 1.13 million mt, down 1.04 per cent from 2015.

Value-wise, the total aluminium bar rods and profile exports was estimated at US$2.49 billion in 2014, which almost doubled to reach US$4.02 billion in 2015. In 2016, the realization from exports of aluminium semis is expected to go down; the total shipment of aluminium bar rods and profile from China to the international markets is estimated to be valued at US$3.96 billion.

As China marks the 15th anniversary of its accession to the WTO, the United States, European Union and Japan are maintaining tough rules that protect them from cheap Chinese products flooding their markets.

China on Monday launched a complaint at the World Trade Organisation against these economies after they failed to treat China as a market economy and ease their calculations of anti-dumping duties on Chinese goods. The decision WTO takes on the issue is sure to have a significant impact on the nternational trade of China aluminium, but to what extent? - The market has to wait and watch.

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