Mexico's aluminium ingot export estimated to decline 37% YOY while semis export keep surging in 2016

Of late, Mexico has been hitting the aluminium industry headlines for all the wrong reasons, related mostly to its somewhat dubious role in the international trade market. According to the recent industry reports, significant quantity of fake aluminium semis has been emanating from the country, a large chunk of which has been heading towards Vietnam. Till end of July this year 7,400 metric tonnes of “extrusion metal units” have left Mexico, and according to Global Trade Information Services, Vietnam was the destination of 91 per cent of Mexico’s aluminium-extrusion exports. Experts say Mexico shipping aluminium products to Vietnam does not make much economic sense, since Vietnamese market is already highly saturated. But nevertheless, Mexico remains one of the busiest aluminium exporting countries of the year as far as number and volume of shipments is concerned.

Mexico's aluminium ingot export estimated to decline 37% YOY while semis export keep surging in 2016

Primary aluminium shipment volumes in Mexico, however, took a hit this year after surging in 2015. The country exported 47,198 tonnes of aluminium (alloyed as well as non-alloyed) in 2014, which jumped 19 per cent to total at 56,234.2 tonnes in 2015. In 2016, total aluminium export from Mexico is estimated to reach 35,401.3 tonnes, declining 37 per cent year-on-year. This is in stark contrast with aluminium semis exports which have ballooned in the last one year.

Value-wise, total aluminium (alloyed and non-alloyed) exports from Mexico totalled at US$102.4 million in 2014. In 2015, the figure somewhat improved to reach US$112.5 million, up 9.8 per cent from the previous fiscal. In 2016, Mexico's total aluminium export is estimated to be valued at US$113.3 million.

In September, the Wall Street Journal cited U.S aluminium executives contending that some US$2 billion worth of Chinese metal products had been stockpiled in Mexico as part of a scheme to re-export to the U.S, which imposes heavy duties on Chinese products. The newspaper said a total of 1 million tonnes of aluminium products were previously spotted by a pilot commissioned by a U.S. aluminium executive to fly over a factory in Mexico.

Last week, the Wall Street Journal reported that giant stockpiles of aluminium amounting to around 500,000 tonnes were shipped from Mexico to Vietnam. People from the industry seem to be remaining doubtful about the origin of the metal products. The journey of the extruded aluminium products from Mexico to Vietnam, according to industry reports, coincided with a substantial surge in the metal's exports to Vietnam from China and the U.S. as well, the economic impact of which is yet to be ascertained. 

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