LME aluminium to swing widely

LME aluminium will move in a wide range of USD 1,580-1,610/mt on Thursday.

SHFE 1611 aluminium should move between RMB 11,890-12,050/mt.

In east China’s spot aluminium market, spot premiums of RMB 100-140/mt are expected over SHFE 1609 aluminium contract.

Key macroeconomic indicators for base metal prices

US crude oil inventories for last week and European Central Bank interest rate decision will be a focus of markets today. Base metals fell overnight due to rising US dollar index.

In China’s official and Caixin manufacturing PMIs in August, import and new export order improved noticeably. When combined with yuan’s devaluation, China’s exports may improve in August. But export order sub-indice in Japan’s August manufacturing PMI dropped noticeably, meaning weak overseas demand. So any improvement in China’s exports should be limited.

The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week should remain low, and the number last week had remained below 300,000 for 78 straight weeks.

API’s crude oil inventories for the US last week unexpectedly fall, driving up crude oil prices. should EIA’s inventories decline, crude oil will rise further.

It seems to be necessary for the European Central Bank to expand its easy monetary measures given sluggish economy and low inflation.

The US Fed’s Beige Book released this morning showed domestic economy grew at an only mild pace during late July-August as strong labor market did not push up salary and prices significantly. Most regional Feds expect US economy to grow at mild tempo in the near future.

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