SHFE aluminium to move higher

SHFE 1609 aluminium should grow to RMB 12,500-12,700/mt today with positive technical indicators.

Eyes will be on US June ADP employment data due for release tonight.

LME aluminium will move at USD 1,640-1,660/mt. In China’s spot aluminium market, spot premiums of RMB 40-80/mt are expected over SHFE 1607 aluminium contract.

Key macroeconomic indicators for base metal prices

Base metals mostly closed with gains overnight. Market expectations toward easy monetary measures worldwide will support base metals prices, but fundamentals are still weak.

ADP’s June employment data in June are expected to fall, but US job market will likely pick up in June. The numbers of initial jobless claims in June remained low. Markit’s manufacturing PMI job sub-indice in June hit 52.3, the highest since January, and ISM’s manufacturing PMI job sub-indice in June broke through 50 for the first time from November last year.

Fed’s June meeting minutes showed most officials support to take a wait-and-see attitude due to downbeat non-farm employment in May. They are also concerned that UK’s vote will affect US economy in the future.

Wall Street Journal’s Jon Hilsenrath said the Fell will be more cautious after UK’s vote to leave the EU, and uncertainty of economic outlook will remain until the opening of Fed’s July policy meeting.

The US dollar index fell slightly after FOMC’s dovish tonne in June’s meeting minutes.

API’s crude oil inventories unexpectedly declined sharply last week, this allowed NYMEX August oil to extend gains.

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