LME aluminium to outperform SHFE aluminium

LME aluminium will move at highs of USD 1,550-1,570/mt today, with support at the 5-day and 10-day moving averages, observed SMM in an early morning forecast.

SHFE 1607 aluminium will test support at the 40-day moving average and will move at RMB 12,170-12,330/mt due to a lack of market confidence.

In China’s spot aluminium market, spot premiums of RMB 10-50/mt are expected over SHFE 1606 aluminium contract.

Key macroeconomic indicators for base metal prices

US crude oil inventories and IFO economic climate index for Germany in May will be announced today. Base metals are expected to strengthen with crude oil today, but a few metals will remain weak.

German ZEW Current Conditions in May released yesterday was weak, which is expected to have resulted from the risk of UK exit from the EU. So IFO economic climate index for Germany in May is not promising.

API crude oil inventories in the US last week were expected to fall, driving up NYMEX July oil prices. EIA crude oil inventories should also decline, and will also lend support to crude oil.

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