Strong US dollar to weigh on LME aluminium

The US dollar index rose above 95 as minutes of the US Fed’s April meeting strengthened expectations for rate hike in June. This will drag LME aluminium down to USD 1,535-15,55/mt on Thursday.

SHFE 1607 aluminium will move at RMB 12,200-12,420/mt.

In China’s spot aluminium market, spot premiums of RMB 10-50/mt are expected over SHFE 1606 aluminium contract.

Key macroeconomic indicators for base metal prices

Diverging trend should intensify further on base metals market with US dollar gathering rising momentum, supported by hawkish statement from US Fed April rate meeting.

Attention is turning to US May Philadelphia Fed's manufacturing index and US initial jobless claims early last week. The hawkish statement from US Fed April rate meeting come as no surprise and the meeting minutes indicated the possibility of rate hike in June and also stressed risk factors like UK’s exit from EU. The rate increase will finally depend on the performance of economic figures. After release of the meeting minutes, US dollar posted large gains while crude oil and precious metals prices were depressed notably.

US NY Empire State manufacturing index issued previously fell significantly in May, which triggered worries about recession in US manufacturing industry. Should US May Philadelphia Fed's manufacturing index improve as expected, the worries may ease slightly.

Eyes will be also on speeches delivered by US Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Fischer and NY Fed President Dudley, who respectively hold neutral and dovish attitudes rate hike.

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