Aluminum rising, production cuts creating demand

A strong demand outlook for aluminum will offset oversupply and lend support to prices in 2015, according to Caroline Bain, senior commodities economist at Capital Economics.

BNAmericas reported that the aluminum market has been in surplus from 2007 to the present due to large increases in capacity in China and the Middle East. Chinese production grew 6% last year and output is expected to grow by 10% to slightly more than 26Mt compared with demand of 25.8Mt in 2014, according to CRU Group. Major manufacturers UC Rusal and Alcoa have been cutting back their own production to deal with the Chinese oversupply.

Rising 1.7 percent to close at INR 111.35 ($1.85) per kilogram, the cash price of primary Indian aluminum experienced the biggest change for Tuesday, June 17. The cash price of primary aluminum weakened by 1.1 percent on the LME, settling at $1,802 per metric ton. On the LME, the aluminum 3-month price declined 1.0 percent to $1,843 per metric ton.

Chinese aluminum prices were mixed for the day. The cash price of Chinese aluminum moved yesterday. After a few changeless days, prices dropped 0.8 percent to CNY 13,260 ($2,129) per metric ton. The price of Chinese aluminum scrap held steady at CNY 12,250 ($1,967) per metric ton. The price of Chinese aluminum billet continues hovering around CNY 13,590 ($2,182) per metric ton for the fifth day in a row. The price of Chinese aluminum bar saw little movement at CNY 14,200 ($2,280) per metric ton.

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