LMC AUTOMOTIVE predicts the slow growth of aluminium in global market

The global light vehicle market was expected to remain in positive territory this year, with growth of 3% to over 87 million units, according to LMC Automotive.

Less positive news is that several emerging markets are underperforming and the outlook for vehicle sales in some previously high growth markets is being downgraded, said LMC Automotive.

"While the US, China and western Europe continue to be likely sources of expansion in 2014, driving our outlook for the year, a number of large and previously dynamic emerging markets have moved from growth to stagnation, or even outright contraction," LMC Automotive managing director Pete Kelly said.

On Europe, LMC Automotive said while western Europe was turning the corner, the same could not be said of eastern Europe.

"We have yet to see a real downturn in Russia, but all of the fundamentals point towards a weaker market this year, with recovery in 2015 now on a knife edge. The waters are further muddied by events in Crimea, which have already led to a reduction by several percentage points in LMC's forecast," LMC Automotive said.

Sales in Turkey, always relatively volatile, plummeted 30% in March, underscoring the effects of political and economic fragility, it said.

"A large decline in the total east European vehicle market is not expected, but downside risks in certain countries within the region are clearly rising," said Carol Thomas, LMC Automotive's Central and Eastern European Analyst.

"By April this year, we had revised all of our forecasts downwards. Of the six emerging markets under consideration [Argentina, Brazil, India, Russia, Thailand and Turkey], only India is currently expected to show any growth in 2014, and even that is exposed to considerable downside risk," the analyst group said.

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