China Aluminum Supply and Demand Will Keep Balance in Next Two or Three Years

(China Aluminum Network) CatherineA.Afanasyeva who is the principal of global marketing business of United Company RUSAL said, let us have a look at the contribution and prospect of Chinese aluminum industry. At present, low cost is the key characteristic in China to push the supply. Though the country was in the state of slight oversupply in last year, we also could found there was a capacity growth in the Five-Year plan, China will have some new capacity to replace the old ones, but the capacity growth was affected by the rising of electrovalence. On the other side, growth in China which was always surpass our expectation and prediction. We hold that supply and demand in Chinese market will reaches balance about 0.9 billion tons. Xinjiang with 4 millon tons of existing capacity, the shut down of some old factories and the energy policy certainly will influence the co-ordination of supply and demand. Therefore, we consider the co-ordination of supply and demand in China will achieved in the next 2 or 3 years.

The following factors stimulate the increase. First of all, Chinese smelters with relative high carbon emission which was about 25 tons of carbon emission for each ton of aluminum production. Thus we can observed that China was protect the resource that will impact heat-engine plant to boost aluminum production. Most of the bauxite supply was depended on import, 80% was imported from Indonesia. Now the Indonesia government imposed restrictions on export and established export duty, other new bauxite also postponed production.

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