Chinese actions to support aluminum but hurt lead prices

Government decisions in China could underpin aluminum but undercut lead, says Commerzbank. Aluminum smelters in the province of Henan have been asked to prepare for Electricity supply cuts. “Henan is China's largest aluminum-producing region. This could result in production losses there and a further rise in prices,” Commerzbank says.

Prices on the Shanghai Futures Exchange already have climbed 7.5% since the beginning of July. “Coupled with the sharp reduction of inventories in China, with aluminum stocks on the SHFE at their lowest level in two years, these possible production losses could Lead to greater imports, which could ultimately support the price of aluminum on the LME as well.”

Meanwhile, Commerzbank says “the price of Lead could come under pressure soon” as China’s lead-acid battery industry is restructured. China's Ministry of Environmental Protection has ordered almost 1,000 lead-acid battery producers to suspend production temporarily, and some will be shut down.

“China's battery production accounts for around 80% of the country's domestic lead demand, and China in turn accounts for 45% of global lead demand,” Commerzbank says.

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